polymarket slug

2026-06-24 11:28:26 -05:00
parent 253b8cfbcd
commit ddaa1db876
4 changed files with 185 additions and 57 deletions
--- a/lib/feeds.ts
+++ b/lib/feeds.ts
@@ -159,79 +159,176 @@ export async function fetchMatchesAndTeams(): Promise<{ matches: Match[]; teams:
 }

 // ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-// Polymarket Gamma API: Wahrscheinlichkeiten pro Spiel
+// Polymarket Gamma API: Wahrscheinlichkeiten pro Spiel (Series soccer-fifwc)
 // ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 const PM_BASE = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com";
+const PM_SERIES = "11433"; // WM 2026 Serie
+
+interface PmEvent {
+  id: string;
+  slug: string;
+  title: string;
+  markets?: PmMarket[];
+}

 interface PmMarket {
-  question: string;
-  outcomes: string;        // JSON-String, z.B. "[\"Germany\",\"Draw\",\"Mexico\"]"
-  outcomePrices: string;   // JSON-String, z.B. "[\"0.55\",\"0.25\",\"0.20\"]"
  slug: string;
+  groupItemTitle: string;
+  outcomes: string;        // JSON-String ["Yes","No"]
+  outcomePrices: string;   // JSON-String ["0.385","0.615"]
+  sportsMarketType?: string;
  closed: boolean;
 }

-// Map: normalisierter Teamname-Schlüssel -> Wahrscheinlichkeit.
-export interface OddsEntry {
-  outcomes: string[];
-  prices: number[];
-  question: string;
+export interface ParsedOdds {
+  homeCode: string;
+  awayCode: string;
+  homeName: string;
+  awayName: string;
+  pHome: number;
+  pDraw: number;
+  pAway: number;
+}
+
+// Normalisiert Teamcodes zwischen Polymarket-Slug und Feed (3-Buchstaben).
+// Bekannte Abweichungen: kr/kor (Südkorea), nld/ned (Niederlande), cdr/cod (DR Kongo).
+const CODE_NORM: Record<string, string> = {
+  kor: "kr",
+  nld: "ned",
+  cdr: "cod",
+  cvi: "cpv",
+  rsa: "rsa", // ok
+  swe: "swe", // ok
+};
+
+function normCode(c: string): string {
+  return (CODE_NORM[c] ?? c).toLowerCase();
 }

 function safeParse<T>(s: string, fallback: T): T {
  try { return JSON.parse(s) as T; } catch { return fallback; }
 }

-// Holt WM-bezogene Märkte über das Tag/Slug der Polymarket-WM-Kollektion.
-// Hinweis: Der exakte Slug kann sich ändern; per ENV überschreibbar.
-export async function fetchOdds(): Promise<OddsEntry[]> {
-  const slug = process.env.POLYMARKET_WC_SLUG || "world-cup-2026";
+// Holt alle WM-Spiele über den Series-Endpoint mit Pagination.
+// Parst pro Event die drei Moneyline-Märkte (Heim/Draw/Auswärts).
+export async function fetchOdds(): Promise<ParsedOdds[]> {
  return cached("pm:odds", 120_000, async () => {
-    const res = await fetch(
-      `${PM_BASE}/events?slug=${encodeURIComponent(slug)}`,
-      { cache: "no-store", headers: { "User-Agent": "wm2026-board/1.0" } },
-    );
-    if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`polymarket ${res.status}`);
-    const events = (await res.json()) as Array<{ markets?: PmMarket[] }>;
-    const entries: OddsEntry[] = [];
-    for (const ev of events) {
+    const allEvents: PmEvent[] = [];
+    for (let offset = 0; ; offset += 100) {
+      const url = `${PM_BASE}/events?series_id=${PM_SERIES}&active=true&closed=false&limit=100&offset=${offset}`;
+      const res = await fetch(url, {
+        cache: "no-store",
+        headers: { "User-Agent": "wm2026-board/1.0" },
+      });
+      if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`polymarket ${res.status}`);
+      const page = (await res.json()) as PmEvent[];
+      allEvents.push(...page);
+      if (page.length < 100) break;
+    }
+    //console.log("[polymarket] events fetched:", allEvents.length);
+
+    const parsed: ParsedOdds[] = [];
+    for (const ev of allEvents) {
+      // Slug: fifwc-{home}-{away}-{yyyy}-{mm}-{dd}
+      const slugParts = ev.slug.replace("fifwc-", "").split("-");
+      if (slugParts.length < 5) continue;
+      const homeCode = normCode(slugParts[0]);
+      const awayCode = normCode(slugParts[1]);
+
+      let pHome = 0, pDraw = 0, pAway = 0;
+      let homeName = "", awayName = "";
+
      for (const mk of ev.markets ?? []) {
+        if (mk.sportsMarketType && mk.sportsMarketType !== "moneyline") continue;
        if (mk.closed) continue;
-        const outcomes = safeParse<string[]>(mk.outcomes, []);
        const prices = safeParse<string[]>(mk.outcomePrices, []).map(Number);
-        if (outcomes.length && outcomes.length === prices.length) {
-          entries.push({ outcomes, prices, question: mk.question });
+        if (prices.length < 2) continue;
+        const yes = prices[0]; // erster Preis = "Yes"-Wahrscheinlichkeit
+
+        const gti = mk.groupItemTitle.toLowerCase();
+        if (mk.slug.endsWith("-draw") || gti.startsWith("draw")) {
+          pDraw = yes;
+        } else {
+          // Heuristik: match gegen groupItemTitle (Teamname)
+          // Prüfe ob der Titel den Home-Code oder Away-Code enthält
+          // Besser: erster Markt = Home, dritter = Away; Draw in der Mitte.
+          // Da die Reihenfolge nicht garantiert ist: über slug-Suffix matchen.
+          if (mk.slug.endsWith("-" + slugParts[0].toLowerCase())) {
+            pHome = yes;
+            homeName = mk.groupItemTitle;
+          } else if (mk.slug.endsWith("-" + slugParts[1].toLowerCase())) {
+            pAway = yes;
+            awayName = mk.groupItemTitle;
+          }
        }
      }
+
+      if (pHome > 0 || pDraw > 0 || pAway > 0) {
+        parsed.push({ homeCode, awayCode, homeName, awayName, pHome, pDraw, pAway });
+      }
    }
-    return entries;
+
+    console.log("[polymarket] spiele:", parsed.length);
+    return parsed;
  });
 }

-// Verknüpft Polymarket-Märkte mit Spielen anhand der Teamnamen im Markttitel.
-export function attachOdds(matches: Match[], teams: Team[], odds: OddsEntry[]): Match[] {
-  const nameById = new Map(teams.map((t) => [t.id, t.name.toLowerCase()]));
+// Normalisiert Teamnamen für Matching (lowercase, diakritische Zeichen, aliase).
+function normName(n: string): string {
+  return n
+    .toLowerCase()
+    .normalize("NFD").replace(/[\u0300-\u036f]/g, "") // diakritische Zeichen entfernen
+    .replace(/[^a-z0-9 ]/g, "")
+    .replace(/\s+/g, " ")
+    .trim();
+}
+
+// Verknüpft Polymarket-Odds mit Feed-Matches über Teamnamen (primär) oder Codes.
+export function attachOdds(matches: Match[], teams: Team[], odds: ParsedOdds[]): Match[] {
+  // Map: Team-ID → normierter Name
+  const nameById = new Map(teams.map((t) => [t.id, normName(t.name)]));
+  // Map: normierter Name → Team-ID (für Lookup)
+  const idByName = new Map<string, string>();
+  for (const t of teams) {
+    const nn = normName(t.name);
+    if (!idByName.has(nn)) idByName.set(nn, t.id);
+  }
+  // Map: normierter Code → Team-ID
+  const idByCode = new Map(teams.map((t) => [t.code.toLowerCase(), t.id]));
+
+  // Map: Polymarket ParsedOdds → { homeTeamId, awayTeamId }
+  const oddsMatch = new Map<ParsedOdds, { homeId: string; awayId: string } | null>();
+  for (const o of odds) {
+    const hn = normName(o.homeName);
+    const an = normName(o.awayName);
+    const homeId = idByName.get(hn) ?? idByCode.get(o.homeCode);
+    const awayId = idByName.get(an) ?? idByCode.get(o.awayCode);
+    if (homeId && awayId) {
+      oddsMatch.set(o, { homeId, awayId });
+    } else {
+      oddsMatch.set(o, null);
+    }
+  }
+
  return matches.map((m) => {
    if (!m.homeTeamId || !m.awayTeamId) return m;
-    const hn = nameById.get(m.homeTeamId);
-    const an = nameById.get(m.awayTeamId);
-    if (!hn || !an) return m;
-    const hit = odds.find(
-      (o) => o.question.toLowerCase().includes(hn) && o.question.toLowerCase().includes(an),
-    );
-    if (!hit) return m;
-    // Heuristik: 3 Outcomes = Heim/Unentschieden/Auswärts; 2 = Heim/Auswärts.
-    const idxHome = hit.outcomes.findIndex((o) => o.toLowerCase().includes(hn));
-    const idxAway = hit.outcomes.findIndex((o) => o.toLowerCase().includes(an));
-    const idxDraw = hit.outcomes.findIndex((o) => /draw|unentschieden|tie/i.test(o));
-    if (idxHome < 0 || idxAway < 0) return m;
-    return {
-      ...m,
-      prob: {
-        home: hit.prices[idxHome] ?? 0,
-        draw: idxDraw >= 0 ? (hit.prices[idxDraw] ?? null) : null,
-        away: hit.prices[idxAway] ?? 0,
-      },
-    };
+    // Suche in oddsMatch nach einer Kombination die beide Team-IDs matcht
+    for (const [o, ids] of oddsMatch) {
+      if (!ids) continue;
+      // Beide Richtungen prüfen
+      if ((ids.homeId === m.homeTeamId && ids.awayId === m.awayTeamId) ||
+          (ids.homeId === m.awayTeamId && ids.awayId === m.homeTeamId)) {
+        const swapped = ids.homeId === m.awayTeamId;
+        return {
+          ...m,
+          prob: {
+            home: swapped ? o.pAway : o.pHome,
+            draw: o.pDraw,
+            away: swapped ? o.pHome : o.pAway,
+          },
+        };
+      }
+    }
+    return m;
  });
 }
--- a/lib/simulation.ts
+++ b/lib/simulation.ts
@@ -23,18 +23,45 @@ export function saveOverrides(overrides: SimOverrides): void {
  } catch { /* quota exceeded */ }
 }

-// Plausibles Standardergebnis aus Polymarket-Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
-// Favorit gewinnt 1:0; bei hoher W'keit (>=0.65) 2:0.
-// Ohne prob: Gruppe → 1:1, K.o. → null (Nutzer muss selbst eingeben).
+// Plausibles Standardergebnis aus Polymarket-3-Wege-Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
+//
+// Schwellen (zentral):
+//   Draw am höchsten ODER max(home,away) < 0.40 → 0:0 (Gruppe) / 1:0 Heim (K.o.)
+//   Favorit 0.40–0.60 → 1:0
+//   Favorit 0.60–0.78 → 2:0
+//   Favorit > 0.78       → 3:0
+//
+// Beispiele:
+//   Schweiz–Kanada  (0.385/0.315/0.295) → 0:0
+//   Schottland–Brasilien (0.10/0.17/0.75) → 0:2
+//   Marokko–Haiti        (0.83/0.13/0.05) → 3:0
 export function defaultScore(match: Match): { homeScore: number; awayScore: number } | null {
  const prob = match.prob;
  if (!prob) {
    if (match.stage === "GROUP") return { homeScore: 1, awayScore: 1 };
    return null;
  }
+
+  const maxFA = Math.max(prob.home, prob.away);
+  const isDraw = prob.draw > prob.home && prob.draw > prob.away;
+  const isGroup = match.stage === "GROUP";
+
+  if (isDraw || maxFA < 0.40) {
+    if (isGroup) return { homeScore: 0, awayScore: 0 };
+    return { homeScore: 1, awayScore: 0 }; // K.o.: knapp Heim (kein Remis)
+  }
+
+  // Favorit bestimmen
  const homeFav = prob.home >= prob.away;
-  const favProb = Math.max(prob.home, prob.away);
-  const goals = favProb >= 0.65 ? 2 : 1;
+  let goals: number;
+  if (maxFA > 0.78) {
+    goals = 3;
+  } else if (maxFA >= 0.60) {
+    goals = 2;
+  } else {
+    goals = 1; // 0.40–0.60
+  }
+
  if (homeFav) return { homeScore: goals, awayScore: 0 };
  return { homeScore: 0, awayScore: goals };
 }
--- a/lib/types.ts
+++ b/lib/types.ts
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ export interface Match {
  homeScore: number | null;
  awayScore: number | null;
  // Wahrscheinlichkeiten 0..1 (Polymarket), falls vorhanden
-  prob?: { home: number; draw: number | null; away: number } | null;
+  prob?: { home: number; draw: number; away: number } | null;
  venue?: string | null;       // Austragungsort
  attendance?: number | null;  // Zuschauerzahl, falls verfügbar
 }