polymarket slug

lib/simulation.ts

@@ -23,18 +23,45 @@ export function saveOverrides(overrides: SimOverrides): void {
   } catch { /* quota exceeded */ }
 }
 
-// Plausibles Standardergebnis aus Polymarket-Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
-// Favorit gewinnt 1:0; bei hoher W'keit (>=0.65) 2:0.
-// Ohne prob: Gruppe → 1:1, K.o. → null (Nutzer muss selbst eingeben).
+// Plausibles Standardergebnis aus Polymarket-3-Wege-Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
+//
+// Schwellen (zentral):
+//   Draw am höchsten ODER max(home,away) < 0.40 → 0:0 (Gruppe) / 1:0 Heim (K.o.)
+//   Favorit 0.40–0.60 → 1:0
+//   Favorit 0.60–0.78 → 2:0
+//   Favorit > 0.78       → 3:0
+//
+// Beispiele:
+//   Schweiz–Kanada  (0.385/0.315/0.295) → 0:0
+//   Schottland–Brasilien (0.10/0.17/0.75) → 0:2
+//   Marokko–Haiti        (0.83/0.13/0.05) → 3:0
 export function defaultScore(match: Match): { homeScore: number; awayScore: number } | null {
   const prob = match.prob;
   if (!prob) {
     if (match.stage === "GROUP") return { homeScore: 1, awayScore: 1 };
     return null;
   }
+
+  const maxFA = Math.max(prob.home, prob.away);
+  const isDraw = prob.draw > prob.home && prob.draw > prob.away;
+  const isGroup = match.stage === "GROUP";
+
+  if (isDraw || maxFA < 0.40) {
+    if (isGroup) return { homeScore: 0, awayScore: 0 };
+    return { homeScore: 1, awayScore: 0 }; // K.o.: knapp Heim (kein Remis)
+  }
+
+  // Favorit bestimmen
   const homeFav = prob.home >= prob.away;
-  const favProb = Math.max(prob.home, prob.away);
-  const goals = favProb >= 0.65 ? 2 : 1;
+  let goals: number;
+  if (maxFA > 0.78) {
+    goals = 3;
+  } else if (maxFA >= 0.60) {
+    goals = 2;
+  } else {
+    goals = 1; // 0.40–0.60
+  }
+
   if (homeFav) return { homeScore: goals, awayScore: 0 };
   return { homeScore: 0, awayScore: goals };
 }