Files
wm-projekt/lib/simulation.ts
2026-06-24 09:52:03 -05:00

111 lines
4.2 KiB
TypeScript

import { Match, Team, GroupTable, ThirdPlaceRow } from "./types";
import { ThirdAssignment, LATER_ROUNDS } from "./bracket";
import { ResolvedSide, ResolvedTie } from "./resolve-bracket";
export type SimOverrides = Record<string, { homeScore: number; awayScore: number }>;
const STORAGE_KEY = "wm2026-sim-overrides";
export function loadOverrides(): SimOverrides {
if (typeof window === "undefined") return {};
try {
const raw = localStorage.getItem(STORAGE_KEY);
return raw ? JSON.parse(raw) : {};
} catch {
return {};
}
}
export function saveOverrides(overrides: SimOverrides): void {
if (typeof window === "undefined") return;
try {
localStorage.setItem(STORAGE_KEY, JSON.stringify(overrides));
} catch { /* quota exceeded */ }
}
// Plausibles Standardergebnis aus Polymarket-Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
// Favorit gewinnt 1:0; bei hoher W'keit (>=0.65) 2:0.
// Ohne prob: Gruppe → 1:1, K.o. → null (Nutzer muss selbst eingeben).
export function defaultScore(match: Match): { homeScore: number; awayScore: number } | null {
const prob = match.prob;
if (!prob) {
if (match.stage === "GROUP") return { homeScore: 1, awayScore: 1 };
return null;
}
const homeFav = prob.home >= prob.away;
const favProb = Math.max(prob.home, prob.away);
const goals = favProb >= 0.65 ? 2 : 1;
if (homeFav) return { homeScore: goals, awayScore: 0 };
return { homeScore: 0, awayScore: goals };
}
// Baut die simulierte Match-Liste: gespielte Spiele unverändert,
// offene Spiele mit Override oder Polymarket-Default, status = "FINISHED".
export function buildSimMatches(realMatches: Match[], overrides: SimOverrides): Match[] {
return realMatches.map((m) => {
if (m.status === "FINISHED") return m;
const override = overrides[m.id];
if (override) {
return { ...m, homeScore: override.homeScore, awayScore: override.awayScore, status: "FINISHED" as const };
}
const def = defaultScore(m);
if (def) {
return { ...m, homeScore: def.homeScore, awayScore: def.awayScore, status: "FINISHED" as const };
}
return m;
});
}
// Ermittelt die Gewinner-Seite eines aufgelösten Ties anhand der Scores.
function winningSide(tie: ResolvedTie): ResolvedSide | null {
if (tie.home.score == null || tie.away.score == null) return null;
if (tie.home.score > tie.away.score) return tie.home;
if (tie.away.score > tie.home.score) return tie.away;
return tie.home; // unentschieden → Heimseite gewinnt
}
function losingSide(tie: ResolvedTie): ResolvedSide | null {
if (tie.home.score == null || tie.away.score == null) return null;
if (tie.home.score > tie.away.score) return tie.away;
if (tie.away.score > tie.home.score) return tie.home;
return tie.away;
}
// Propagiert Gewinner aus R32 durch alle Folgerunden (R16→QF→SF→Finale).
// Füllt teamId/label/code in den späteren Runden mit den Daten des Gewinners.
export function propagateSimWinners(
r32: ResolvedTie[],
later: Record<number, ResolvedTie>,
): Record<number, ResolvedTie> {
const winners = new Map<number, { teamId: string; label: string; code: string }>();
const losers = new Map<number, { teamId: string; label: string; code: string }>();
function update(tie: ResolvedTie) {
const w = winningSide(tie);
const l = losingSide(tie);
if (w?.teamId) winners.set(tie.matchNumber, { teamId: w.teamId, label: w.label, code: w.code });
if (l?.teamId) losers.set(tie.matchNumber, { teamId: l.teamId, label: l.label, code: l.code });
}
for (const tie of r32) update(tie);
const result: Record<number, ResolvedTie> = {};
for (const km of LATER_ROUNDS) {
const tie = later[km.matchNumber];
if (!tie) continue;
const src = km.losers ? losers : winners;
const hw = src.get(km.fromHome);
const aw = src.get(km.fromAway);
const home = hw
? { ...tie.home, teamId: hw.teamId, label: hw.label, code: hw.code, isWinner: false, provisional: false }
: tie.home;
const away = aw
? { ...tie.away, teamId: aw.teamId, label: aw.label, code: aw.code, isWinner: false, provisional: false }
: tie.away;
const newTie: ResolvedTie = { ...tie, home, away };
update(newTie);
result[km.matchNumber] = newTie;
}
return result;
}