---
title: "Simulating Diaconis' 50.8% Coin Flip Bias in Python & JavaScript (Monte Carlo Analysis)"
description: "Why real physical coin flips are not 50/50, an analysis of the Diaconis-Holmes-Montgomery model, and how to write a Monte Carlo simulation in TypeScript & Python."
tags: ["python", "javascript", "datascience", "math"]
canonical_url: "https://entscheidomat.com/ratgeber/kopf-oder-zahl-muenzwurf-online"
target_keywords: ["münze werfen online", "kopf oder zahl", "digitaler münzwurf", "münzwurf online", "coin flip simulation"]
---

# Simulating Diaconis' 50.8% Coin Flip Bias in Python & JavaScript (Monte Carlo Analysis)

For centuries, flipping a coin has served as the universal gold standard of fairness. From starting American football games to resolving judicial ties, society assumes that tossing a coin produces a pure $50/50$ ($0.50$ vs $0.50$) probability distribution.

However, in 2007, a landmark paper by Stanford mathematicians **Persi Diaconis, Susan Holmes, and Richard Montgomery** titled *"Dynamical Bias in Coin Tossing"* mathematically proved that physical coin flips are **dynamically biased toward the side that faced up prior to the toss**.

In 2023, an empirical study by František Bartoš et al. confirmed this theory across **350,757 physical coin flips** with 46 different currencies: coins land on the same side they started on **$50.8\%$ of the time**.

In this article, we will examine the physics of coin toss precession, model the $50.8\%$ dynamical bias using Monte Carlo simulations in Python and TypeScript, and discuss why a digital [Münze werfen online](https://entscheidomat.com/muenze-werfen) tool provides a strictly fairer outcome than a physical coin.

---

## 1. The Physics of the Diaconis-Holmes-Montgomery Model

Why is a flipped physical coin biased? 

When a human flips a coin using their thumb, two distinct rotational motions occur simultaneously:
1. **Pitch Rotation:** The coin flips over and over around its principal axis.
2. **Precession (Wobble):** The angular momentum vector deviates slightly from the principal axis, causing the coin to wobble like a spinning top.

```text
       Normal Axis
           │
           ├─── Precession Angle (α)
          / \
        ┌─┴─┐
        │ 🪙 │  <-- Rotating Coin
        └───┘
```

Because of precession, the coin spends slightly more time in the air with its initial starting face pointing upwards than pointing downwards. 

Diaconis derived the probability $p$ of a coin landing on its initial face as a function of the precession angle $\alpha$:

$$p = \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{\pi} \arcsin\left( \tan \alpha \right)$$

When integrated over normal human flipping dynamics, the theoretical expected probability of landing on the **same starting side** comes out to approximately **$50.8\%$**.

---

## 2. Empirical Proof: The 350,757 Coin Toss Study

In 2023, researcher František Bartoš recruited 48 participants to perform 350,757 recorded coin flips across 46 different coins (USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, etc.).

| Metric | Empirical Observed Value |
| :--- | :--- |
| **Total Recorded Flips** | 350,757 |
| **Same-Side Outcome Probability** | **50.808% ($\pm 0.04\%$)** |
| **Opposite-Side Outcome Probability** | 49.192% |
| **Statistical Significance** | $p < 0.0001$ ($Z$-score $> 9.5$) |

### The "Catching vs. Landing" Factor
* **Caught in Hand:** If the coin is caught mid-air and flipped onto the back of the hand, the $50.8\%$ same-side bias holds true.
* **Spun on Table:** If a coin is spun like a top on a flat surface, Prägemünzen (coins with heavier relief on one side) can exhibit a **huge bias up to 80/20** due to uneven mass distribution along the edge!

---

## 3. Writing a Monte Carlo Simulation in Python

Let's build a Monte Carlo simulation in Python using `numpy` and `scipy` to compare a physical coin flip (with $50.8\%$ same-side bias) against a cryptographically uniform digital coin toss.

```python
import numpy as np
from scipy.stats import chisquare

def simulate_coin_tosses(n_flips: int = 100000, initial_face: str = "HEADS", physical_bias: float = 0.508):
    """
    Simulates N coin flips for both a physical coin (Diaconis bias) and a digital PRNG coin.
    """
    print(f"--- MONTE CARLO SIMULATION ({n_flips:,} Flips) ---")
    
    # 1. PHYSICAL COIN SIMULATION
    # True = Same face as start, False = Opposite face
    physical_draws = np.random.binomial(n=1, p=physical_bias, size=n_flips)
    physical_same = np.sum(physical_draws)
    physical_opp = n_flips - physical_same
    
    print(f"[Physical Coin] Same Side ({initial_face}): {physical_same:,} ({(physical_same/n_flips)*100:.2f}%)")
    print(f"[Physical Coin] Opposite Side: {physical_opp:,} ({(physical_opp/n_flips)*100:.2f}%)")
    
    # Chi-square test against ideal 50/50
    chi_phys, p_phys = chisquare([physical_same, physical_opp], [n_flips/2, n_flips/2])
    print(f"  └─ Chi-Square: {chi_phys:.4f}, p-value: {p_phys:.4e}")
    if p_phys < 0.05:
        print("  └─ ❌ REJECT NULL HYPOTHESIS: Physical coin is statistically BIASED!")

    print("\n" + "="*50 + "\n")

    # 2. DIGITAL COIN SIMULATION (Crypto PRNG)
    digital_draws = np.random.binomial(n=1, p=0.500, size=n_flips)
    digital_heads = np.sum(digital_draws)
    digital_tails = n_flips - digital_heads
    
    print(f"[Digital Coin] HEADS: {digital_heads:,} ({(digital_heads/n_flips)*100:.2f}%)")
    print(f"[Digital Coin] TAILS: {digital_tails:,} ({(digital_tails/n_flips)*100:.2f}%)")
    
    chi_dig, p_dig = chisquare([digital_heads, digital_tails], [n_flips/2, n_flips/2])
    print(f"  └─ Chi-Square: {chi_dig:.4f}, p-value: {p_dig:.4e}")
    if p_dig >= 0.05:
        print("  └─ ✅ ACCEPT NULL HYPOTHESIS: Digital coin is 100% UNBIASED!")

simulate_coin_tosses(100000)
```

---

## 4. TypeScript Implementation of a Digital Coin Toss

To eliminate physical precession bias, a digital coin toss must use `crypto.getRandomValues()` to pick between 0 (Heads) and 1 (Tails) with exact $50.000\%$ probability.

```typescript
export type CoinSide = "HEADS" | "TAILS";

export interface CoinFlipResult {
  outcome: CoinSide;
  timestamp: number;
  entropyHex: string;
}

/**
 * Executes a 100% unbiased digital coin toss using Web Crypto API.
 */
export function flipDigitalCoin(): CoinFlipResult {
  const buffer = new Uint8Array(1);
  
  // Get 8 bits of cryptographic entropy
  let randomByte: number;
  do {
    crypto.getRandomValues(buffer);
    randomByte = buffer[0];
  } while (randomByte >= 254); // Reject upper remainder to eliminate modulo bias (254 % 2 == 0)

  const outcome: CoinSide = (randomByte % 2 === 0) ? "HEADS" : "TAILS";

  return {
    outcome,
    timestamp: Date.now(),
    entropyHex: randomByte.toString(16).padStart(2, '0')
  };
}
```

---

## 5. Physical vs. Digital Coin Comparison

| Parameter | Physical Coin Toss | Digital Coin Toss ([Münze Werfen](https://entscheidomat.com/muenze-werfen)) |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Probability Split** | **50.8% / 49.2%** (Same side bias) | **50.0% / 50.0%** (Pure uniform) |
| **Precession Wobble Bias** | Present ($\arcsin(\tan \alpha)$) | None |
| **Edge Spin Weight Bias** | High (up to 80/20 on flat surfaces) | None |
| **Human Manipulation** | High (controlled thumb strength) | Impossible |
| **Remote Acceptance** | Low (requires physical presence) | High (shareable result link) |

---

## Conclusion & Practical Takeaway

If you are using a physical coin to settle a decision:
* Always cover the coin when calling "Kopf oder Zahl" before inspecting the initial face.
* Alternatively, flip the coin and let it drop onto carpet rather than catching it.

For zero physical bias and instant 50/50 fairness, use a digital coin tool like the live [Münze werfen online on Entscheidomat](https://entscheidomat.com/muenze-werfen).

---

## FAQ (Schema Structured Data)

```json
{
  "@context": "https://schema.org",
  "@type": "FAQPage",
  "mainEntity": [
    {
      "@type": "Question",
      "name": "Is a physical coin toss truly 50/50?",
      "acceptedAnswer": {
        "@type": "Answer",
        "text": "No. Stanford research by Diaconis and a 350,757 empirical coin flip study proved physical coins land on their starting side 50.8% of the time due to rotational precession wobble."
      }
    },
    {
      "@type": "Question",
      "name": "Why is a digital coin flip fairer than a physical coin?",
      "acceptedAnswer": {
        "@type": "Answer",
        "text": "Digital coin flips use cryptographic pseudo-random number generators (Web Crypto API) that have no physical precession, mass imbalance, or human throw technique bias, guaranteeing a true 50.0% split."
      }
    }
  ]
}
```
