simulation

lib/simulation.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
+import { Match, Team, GroupTable, ThirdPlaceRow } from "./types";
+import { ThirdAssignment, LATER_ROUNDS } from "./bracket";
+import { ResolvedSide, ResolvedTie } from "./resolve-bracket";
+
+export type SimOverrides = Record<string, { homeScore: number; awayScore: number }>;
+
+const STORAGE_KEY = "wm2026-sim-overrides";
+
+export function loadOverrides(): SimOverrides {
+  if (typeof window === "undefined") return {};
+  try {
+    const raw = localStorage.getItem(STORAGE_KEY);
+    return raw ? JSON.parse(raw) : {};
+  } catch {
+    return {};
+  }
+}
+
+export function saveOverrides(overrides: SimOverrides): void {
+  if (typeof window === "undefined") return;
+  try {
+    localStorage.setItem(STORAGE_KEY, JSON.stringify(overrides));
+  } catch { /* quota exceeded */ }
+}
+
+// Plausibles Standardergebnis aus Polymarket-Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
+// Favorit gewinnt 1:0; bei hoher W'keit (>=0.65) 2:0.
+// Ohne prob: Gruppe → 1:1, K.o. → null (Nutzer muss selbst eingeben).
+export function defaultScore(match: Match): { homeScore: number; awayScore: number } | null {
+  const prob = match.prob;
+  if (!prob) {
+    if (match.stage === "GROUP") return { homeScore: 1, awayScore: 1 };
+    return null;
+  }
+  const homeFav = prob.home >= prob.away;
+  const favProb = Math.max(prob.home, prob.away);
+  const goals = favProb >= 0.65 ? 2 : 1;
+  if (homeFav) return { homeScore: goals, awayScore: 0 };
+  return { homeScore: 0, awayScore: goals };
+}
+
+// Baut die simulierte Match-Liste: gespielte Spiele unverändert,
+// offene Spiele mit Override oder Polymarket-Default, status = "FINISHED".
+export function buildSimMatches(realMatches: Match[], overrides: SimOverrides): Match[] {
+  return realMatches.map((m) => {
+    if (m.status === "FINISHED") return m;
+    const override = overrides[m.id];
+    if (override) {
+      return { ...m, homeScore: override.homeScore, awayScore: override.awayScore, status: "FINISHED" as const };
+    }
+    const def = defaultScore(m);
+    if (def) {
+      return { ...m, homeScore: def.homeScore, awayScore: def.awayScore, status: "FINISHED" as const };
+    }
+    return m;
+  });
+}
+
+// Ermittelt die Gewinner-Seite eines aufgelösten Ties anhand der Scores.
+function winningSide(tie: ResolvedTie): ResolvedSide | null {
+  if (tie.home.score == null || tie.away.score == null) return null;
+  if (tie.home.score > tie.away.score) return tie.home;
+  if (tie.away.score > tie.home.score) return tie.away;
+  return tie.home; // unentschieden → Heimseite gewinnt
+}
+
+function losingSide(tie: ResolvedTie): ResolvedSide | null {
+  if (tie.home.score == null || tie.away.score == null) return null;
+  if (tie.home.score > tie.away.score) return tie.away;
+  if (tie.away.score > tie.home.score) return tie.home;
+  return tie.away;
+}
+
+// Propagiert Gewinner aus R32 durch alle Folgerunden (R16→QF→SF→Finale).
+// Füllt teamId/label/code in den späteren Runden mit den Daten des Gewinners.
+export function propagateSimWinners(
+  r32: ResolvedTie[],
+  later: Record<number, ResolvedTie>,
+): Record<number, ResolvedTie> {
+  const winners = new Map<number, { teamId: string; label: string; code: string }>();
+  const losers = new Map<number, { teamId: string; label: string; code: string }>();
+
+  function update(tie: ResolvedTie) {
+    const w = winningSide(tie);
+    const l = losingSide(tie);
+    if (w?.teamId) winners.set(tie.matchNumber, { teamId: w.teamId, label: w.label, code: w.code });
+    if (l?.teamId) losers.set(tie.matchNumber, { teamId: l.teamId, label: l.label, code: l.code });
+  }
+
+  for (const tie of r32) update(tie);
+
+  const result: Record<number, ResolvedTie> = {};
+  for (const km of LATER_ROUNDS) {
+    const tie = later[km.matchNumber];
+    if (!tie) continue;
+    const src = km.losers ? losers : winners;
+    const hw = src.get(km.fromHome);
+    const aw = src.get(km.fromAway);
+    const home = hw
+      ? { ...tie.home, teamId: hw.teamId, label: hw.label, code: hw.code, isWinner: false, provisional: false }
+      : tie.home;
+    const away = aw
+      ? { ...tie.away, teamId: aw.teamId, label: aw.label, code: aw.code, isWinner: false, provisional: false }
+      : tie.away;
+    const newTie: ResolvedTie = { ...tie, home, away };
+    update(newTie);
+    result[km.matchNumber] = newTie;
+  }
+  return result;
+}